Buying a LEGO set: now or wait for a lower price?

What we know about how LEGO set prices develop, when waiting pays off and when you are better off ordering now.

Published on 18 October 2026

LEGO 42206 Oracle Red Bull Racing RB20 F1 Auto

Every shop sets its own price

LEGO gives a recommended price, but a shop is free to choose what it charges. That is why the same set can cost more or less in one shop than in another. For a new set the prices are often close together. Later, shops go their own way, for example with promotions around the holidays or when clearing stock. There is no fixed rule for how a price develops.

How long a set stays in the shops

LEGO removes sets from its range after a while. Estimates from collector sites put the average at about two years, with popular sets sometimes staying four years or longer. LEGO rarely announces in advance when a set will go. A deep discount can be a sign that the end is near, but it is never certain.

What happens after a set disappears

Once shop stock runs out, the set can only be found on the second-hand market. A study by HSE University of sets from 1987 to 2015 found that prices there rose by about 10 to 11 percent a year on average, often only two to three years after the set left the shops. Collector sites also point out that many sets stay flat or fall in value. So do not count on a set becoming worth more.

When waiting pays off

You are in no hurry and the set is widely available everywhere.
The set is still at or close to the recommended price.
You have a target price in mind and compare several shops.

When you are better off ordering now

You need the set for a birthday or another fixed date.
The set is nearly sold out or marked as retiring.
You already see a price well below the recommended price.

How to go about it smartly

Decide beforehand what price you find reasonable, for example a certain amount below the recommended price. Then compare the shops. If you wait longer than planned, also check that the set is still in stock. On buildthatset you see for each set what the shops charge, side by side.